The strength of Israel's deterrence, based on its military prowess, will help decide whether Israel becomes the target of a retribution attack from Syria and its allies Iran and Hezbollah.

 

Signals from the US suggesting a military response to the alleged chemical massacre in Syria are growing louder, and Israel, it is safe to assume, is quietly making preparations to ensure it is ready for potential retribution attacks.

If and when Washington, together with its allies, launches a military strike on Syria, the move will not only target the Assad regime.

 

A US military response will also challenge the belligerent axis that stands behind Syria, made up of Iran, which is sending weapons and military advisors to Syria, and Hezbollah, which sent thousands of highly trained, heavily armed fighters to Syria to help keep the Assad regime alive.

 

This axis, also known as the Shi'ite crescent, operates under Russian diplomatic cover, as well as military support from Moscow, in the form of extensive sales of sophisticated arms to Syria.

 

Iran, leader of the Shi'ite crescent, views Syria as its critical forward province. Now, the axis' members will be thinking about how they should respond to an imminent US military strike.

 

Syrian officials have, since the outbreak of the civil war, issued threats in an effort to deter US intervention. A common theme running through many of the threats is a warning that any foreign intervention will result in a "fire that will engulf the region."

 

These threats have been echoed by Iranian officials too.

 

Israel has been specifically mentioned as a target of retribution, though US allies Jordan and Turkey could just as easily find themselves on the target list.

 

Attempts to lash out at Israel could include Syrian ballistic missile attacks, rocket attacks from Hezbollah in Lebanon or in Syria, or terrorist attacks on overseas Israeli targets by global Hezbollah or Iranian operatives.

Despite the threats, Hezbollah, Syria and Iran all know that any provocation against Israel could backfire badly against them.

 

The strength of Israel's deterrence, based on its military prowess, will help decide whether Israel becomes the target of a retribution attack.

 

The signals Israel has sent consistently in recent months and years suggest that it would be wrong to assume that Jerusalem will repeat its actions from the 1991 Gulf War, when Israel did not return fire at Iraq after coming under Scud missile fire.

 

Defense Minister Moshe Ya'alon and IDF Chief of Staff Lt.-Gen. Benny Gantz have already made it abundantly clear that Israel will respond to any attack on its civilians. The most recent demonstration of this resolve was on display last week, when the Israel Air Force bombed a terrorist site south of Beirut, in response to the firing of four rockets at northern Israeli cities.

 

The airstrike was the latest in a series of clear signals designed to exhibit Israel's determination to respond to all attacks on it. Before that, the IDF's Northern Command responded to gunfire and shelling attacks from Syrian army units by silencing the sources of fire with guided surface-to-surface Tamuz missile strikes.

 

Not only has Israel beefed up its deterrence with such responses, it has also - according to foreign media reports - demonstrated its preemptive capabilities, and resolve to use them.

 

According to reports, targets of past preemptive strikes range from caches of Iranian guided missiles in Damascus to a jihadi terrorist cell in the Sinai Peninsula preparing to fire rockets on Israel.

 

With the Israel Air Force able to strike more targets (near and far) than ever before, and IDF Military Intelligence keeping its many eyes on more enemy activity than ever before, those who consider striking at Israel will surely not proceed to do so lightly, if at all.

 

Any assessment of potential retribution should also factor in the possibility that Syria, Hezbollah and Iran might decide to take a calculated risk and launch a limited assault on Israel in response to a US strike, based on a prediction that Israel will refrain from responding with full force.

 

Such a prediction will be out of tune with Israel's quiet yet unmistakable warnings.